The Global Residential Cities Index (GRCI) housing price growth rating tracks the dynamics of residential real estate prices in 150 cities worldwide, based on official statistics data.
4th quarter 2020
Ankara - city with the highest growth rate of average prices year-on-year to Q4 2020 (30%)
5,6% - average annual growth across 150 cities
81% - share of cities that reported growth in residential real estate prices to Q4 2020
20% - share of cities where the increase in residential real estate prices to Q4 2020 was a double-digit number
Seoul - the most expensive city in Asia with an annual increase in residential real estate prices of 22%
The index's annual growth rates have increased for six consecutive quarters in Q4 2020. Globally, house prices in cities rose on average by 5,6% in 2020 compared to 3,2% in 2019.
However, the dynamics of house prices in cities are becoming increasingly polarized. The gap between the fastest-growing and slowest-growing city is now 42 percentage points, compared to 36 in June 2020.
Emerging markets are among the most successful cities, including Turkish and Russian cities. Although the price growth in Turkey is largely linked to high inflation and the lira's trajectory.
A number of cities in North America, Australia, and Europe show high performance, while some Asian cities lag behind. This depends on the duration and strictness of restrictions introduced due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Markets that have been subjected to the strictest measures are seeing a buildup of pent-up demand, which stimulates price inflation.
Of the 15 US cities tracked by the index, 14 are currently in the top third of the ranking table. Annual price growth in them exceeds 7%. A year ago, only two cities fell into this category.
Conversely, Chinese cities have declined in the ranking: in 2020, prices rose on average by 4% compared to an average growth of 6% in 2019.
In Europe, the gap between French and German cities and their Italian and Spanish counterparts is widening. Paris and Hamburg lead with growth ranging from 7% to 8%, while Spanish and Italian cities show average annual growth of -1,5% and 0,6%, respectively.
Future index results will depend on multiple factors. The most important are the speed of population vaccination, the likelihood of a third wave of the pandemic, and the reduction of tax stimulus measures, which could make jobs and mortgages more vulnerable, potentially weakening buyer sentiment in the second half of 2021.
